S&P 500 Returns After a Three Month Gain of >25% More good news for bulls: Historically, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 25% over three months, it has never been lower 3, 6, or 12 months later. In fact, one year after these rallies, it has averaged gains of over 21%. Image: Carson…
Financial Conditions Indices Looser U.S. financial conditions bode well for economic growth by fueling consumer spending and business investment—two vital engines driving the economy forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 RSI With the S&P 500’s RSI running high, caution is warranted. Market participants should be ready for a potential pullback or a period of consolidation as the market digests overbought levels before pushing higher again. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and VIX Although U.S. stocks are rallying and volatility remains low—reflecting market confidence—significant underlying threats from rising trade frictions and policy uncertainty persist. Image: Bloomberg
Commodities Ex-Gold vs. Gold When the commodities (ex-gold) to gold ratio falls to an extreme low and then turns upward, it has historically signaled the beginning of major cyclical bull markets in commodities. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Average Return After a Down Day The year 2025 stands out for the S&P 500, especially because of its resilience following daily declines. Since January, it has rebounded by an average of 0.32% the day after a drop, underscoring its strong ability to recover quickly. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 usually rallies, delivering a median return of 2.0% in the first four weeks, fueled by positive earnings surprises that strengthen investor confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Number of Days Above 20-Day Moving Average While the S&P 500’s extended period above its 20-day moving average signals strong momentum, historical patterns and technical indicators point to a potential pullback or consolidation ahead. Image: SubuTrade
Distribution of Strategist Forecats for S&P 500 Year-End 2025 Index Level Goldman Sachs’ 6600 year-end target for the S&P 500 reflects a confident view on the market’s trajectory, driven by expected Fed easing and strong large-cap fundamentals, positioning it near the top of Wall Street forecasts for 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Magnificent Seven Forward P/E The Magnificent 7 stocks continue to trade at a premium compared to the rest of the S&P 500. However, this premium has narrowed in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Forecast Despite trade-related uncertainties, Wall Street’s leading firms remain confident in the S&P 500’s further gains through 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings, operational resilience, and accommodative monetary policy prospects. Image: Bloomberg