Interest Rates – S&P 500 Index and Federal Reserve Bank Rate Hikes per Year Historically, if the U.S. economy isn’t in a recession, the S&P 500 tends to do well during Fed rate hikes. Image: LPL Research
S&P 500 Index and Trend Line Support A drawdown to the long-term trendline from the 2009 lows would be painful for U.S. equity investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. M2 Money Supply Should investors take a cautious approach to the U.S. stock market? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Performance Through Different Fed Balance Sheet Regimes U.S. equity investors should not worry too much about the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
Total Central Bank Assets as a % of GDP The pace of major central bank purchases is expected to turn negative. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real GDP Growth Real GDP growth is expected to remain well above the average in 2022. Image: BCA Research
Interest Rates – Fed Rate Hikes by Meeting Should investors expect the federal funds rate to be at 2% in January 2023? Image: BofA Global Research
Equity Total Returns Geographic diversification hurt equity performance last year. Image: Richardson Wealth
Consumer and Corporate Cash Balance as % of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Consumer and corporate cash levels as % of market capitalization are at lows. Is the U.S. stock market facing a lack of dry powder? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Dedicated Emerging Market Funds – Market Share EM ETF market share is at a record low, while long-term valuations are attractive. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Drawdown – Geopolitical Events and Stock Market Reactions Historically, the impact of geopolitical events on U.S. stocks has tended to be short-lived. Image: LPL Research