Category: Blog

Oil Price Relative to U.S. Personal Disposable Income The impact of the recent oil surge, adjusted for U.S. personal incomes, is much smaller than that of previous oil shocks. Image: Alpine Macro

S&P 500 Index Performance After Long Streaks >30 for the VIX End A move of the VIX below 30 tends to be bullish for U.S. stocks. Image: LPL Research

2Y-10Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve vs 3M-10Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The steepening of the 3-month/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve suggests that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening could be slower. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate and U.S. 10-Year Real Rate As the risk of stagflation is rising, will the Fed maintain a loose policy? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Energy Sector vs. Fed Funds Rate Should investors expect oil prices to fall when the Fed hikes rates? Image: Real Investment Advice

Global Equities – 200-Day Moving Average Breadth Should investors expect further declines in global equities? Image: Topdown Charts

12-Month S&P 500 Returns Following Peaks and Troughs of Consumer Sentiment Historically, troughs in consumer sentiment tends to precede big stock market returns. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

VIX – Market Shocks in a Historical Perspective The volatility of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on U.S. stocks is equivalent to that of the Gulf War (1990–91). Image: Pictet Asset Management

Bitcoin – Transaction Capacity per Second Has Bitcoin a scalability problem? Image: Deutsche Bank

Small Caps – Russell 2000 Non-Financials Cash as a Percentage of Market Capitalization U.S. small caps have plenty of cash. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Market-Implied Odds of a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Could a recession be coming in the United States? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research