Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Day Price Reaction to Reported Sales and EPS This season, U.S. stocks are reacting with amplified negative price movements to Q2 earnings misses compared to typical patterns, due to elevated market expectations, valuation concerns, and low tolerance for disappointing results. Image: Yahoo Finance
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, followed by two further cuts of the same magnitude in Q1 2026, reducing the federal funds rate to a neutral level of 3.625%. Image: Deutsche Bank
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Rising analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings reflects strong corporate results, positive surprises, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, all pointing to potential near-term market gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts The market currently prices in a greater likelihood of Fed rate cuts than suggested by the Summary of Economic Projections, especially under Powell’s successor as Fed Chair, with a terminal rate expected modestly above 3% in 2027. Image: Deutsche Bank
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Stoxx Europe 600 The April 2025 correction caused short-term volatility and uncertainty but created a buying opportunity in U.S. growth and tech stocks, resetting market sentiment and driving a strong rally. Image: Bloomberg
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies This quarter’s earnings season demonstrates continued resilience in corporate profitability. 63% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 earnings estimates by at least 1 stdev., while 10% have missed by at least 1 stdev.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Corporate America’s Announced Buybacks July’s record $166 billion in share repurchases played a key role in driving an annual buyback pace that may exceed $1 trillion in 2025, reflecting solid corporate confidence and return-of-capital strategies. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent portfolio management. Image: J.P. Morgan
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. This cautious optimism is driven by easing trade barriers and improved financial conditions but remains tempered by persistent downside risks and global uncertainties. Image: International Monetary Fund