Average Annual Inflation of 152 Countries Since 1971 The post-Bretton Woods monetary system features greater inflation variability and generally higher average inflation, making it difficult for countries to keep inflation consistently below 2% over the long term. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Post-election years typically bring strong market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of over 18%, with positive returns in 90% of cases. The real concern, however, lies in the year that follows. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator – Investor Equity Positions Hedge funds are currently more bullish on the market compared to other investor categories, which remain cautious and have not significantly increased their market participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle In post-election years, Q1 tends to be weak. Q2 often shows stronger performance, while Q3 usually experiences some weakness. As the saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Image: Carson Investment Research
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Bottom-up consensus estimates show S&P 500 EPS growth slowing to 4% year-over-year in Q2 2025, highlighting a cautious earnings environment amid ongoing revisions and sector challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High While many are skeptical about investing at all-time highs, evidence suggests it often leads to stronger forward returns compared to investing at random days. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six months, giving investors a data-driven reason for optimism about the market outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this July would tie the longest winning streak for the month. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Households’ (Incl. Hedge Fund) Asset Allocation U.S. households are currently heavily overweight in equities relative to fixed income, reflecting strong conviction in U.S. equity markets despite ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious positioning in bonds. Image: Deutsche Bank