Central Bank Gold Demand in Real USD Central banks are still the backbone of gold’s bull market. Deutsche Bank remains bullish, calling the metal’s “explosive phase” intact, with targets of $4,700 an ounce by year-end, $5,100 in 2027 and $5,442 in 2028. Image: Deutsche Bank
Margin Debt and Net Investor Credit Balance NYSE margin debt just blew past $1.5 trillion. Investors are piling into leverage with both hands, leaving little room for error. The market has gotten riskier, more fragile, but that doesn’t mean a crash is guaranteed. Image: Real Investment Advice
Gold Price Forecast Gold’s rally still has central banks at its back. Deutsche Bank remains bullish on the metal, putting fair value at about $4,700 an ounce by year-end, then $5,100 in 2027 and $5,442 in 2028. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth The median S&P 500 company is set to deliver 12% EPS growth in Q2 2026, well short of the 26% surge forecast for the aggregate index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows As confidence returns, cash is pouring into risk assets while safer funds sit on the sidelines, pointing to a robust appetite for higher-return bets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield spreads are pricing in a smooth ride. Spreads are tight, balance sheets look solid, and the risk is that confidence slips into complacency. Active monitoring helps catch early signs of stress.Image: Topdown Charts
Valuations – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd P/E Multiple – Top 5 Largest Stocks vs. Other 495 Stocks After nearly a decade of commanding sky-high multiples, the five largest U.S. stocks have lost their valuation premium, with average P/Es barely above the rest of the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate There’s no sign of cracks in earnings momentum. Almost 88% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, with the beat rate running well ahead of the 74% long-term average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Equal-weight S&P 500 prices and EPS have risen steadily together. Earnings are still doing the heavy lifting, but the gains are uneven and increasingly concentrated in a handful of companies and sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative June and July The S&P 500 fell 0.1% in July. Bulls can call it noise, but bears will see a familiar pattern. Since 1950, when both June and July have been weak, the rest of the year has often had a hard time delivering much upside. Image: Carson Investment…
Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by this much, investors are more comfortable paying rich valuations. Image: Bloomberg