S&P 500 3-Month Seasonality Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 1 S&P 500 seasonality is more bearish in Presidential cycle year 1, from late summer into the fall. Image: BofA Global Research
Average S&P 500 Index Performance the First Year of a New Party in the White House When a new party is in power in the White House, market weakness is expected in August and September. Image: LPL Research
Velocity of M2 Money Stock in the U.S. Is there really an inflation threat? The surge in M2 money growth has coincided with a collapse in M2 velocity. Image: The Daily Shot
3-Month Change in Size of Fed Balance Sheet The Fed’s bank balance sheet has expanded considerably during the coronavirus pandemic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Purchasing Power – Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Cash, Fiat, Inflation Index Stocks tend to outperform bonds over the long term. Image: Fidelity Investments
Survey – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields While expectations tilt toward falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, plenty of voices argue for a rise, citing everything from sticky inflation to uncertain rate cuts and uneven economic growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
7y1y Fed Policy Rate and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield BofA still expects U.S. 10-year rates to reach 1.9% by the end of the year, but downside risks have increased. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Real Potential GDP U.S. real potential GDP growth is expected to fall to 1.5% from 1.7% today, due to ageing population. Image: Deutsche Bank
China – Total CO2 Emissions by Region China’s CO2 emissions continue to rise. Will China be carbon neutral by 2060? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
China Credit Impulse Leads Global Manufacturing PMI China credit impulse tends to lead global manufacturing PMI by 12 months. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Performance – MSCI World Ex-U.S. and MSCI U.S. It has not paid to bet against U.S. stocks so far this year, as the gap between the U.S. stock market and stocks from the rest of the world continues to widen. Image: The Daily Shot