China Credit Impulse and Commodities (Leading Indicator)
China Credit Impulse and Commodities (Leading Indicator) China credit impulse tends to lead commodity prices by 12 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Category: Blog
Drawdowns – Average and Median Percent Change to the Current Month’s Low from the Prior Month’s High in Presidential Cycle Year 1
Drawdowns – Average and Median Percent Change to the Current Month’s Low from the Prior Month’s High in Presidential Cycle Year 1 Drawdowns happen all the time. But historically, October has the most severe S&P 500 drawdowns in Presidential cycle year 1. Image: BofA Global Research
MSCI World Value Index/MSCI World Growth Index vs. Global Agg. Treasuries Index, Yield to Worst
MSCI World Value Index/MSCI World Growth Index vs. Global Agg. Treasuries Index, Yield to Worst Value should outperform Growth and follow the rise in global rates. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
6-Month or Greater Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Index
6-Month or Greater Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Index 6-month win streaks for the U.S. stock market are quite rare. Can the S&P 500 keep rising after the near 5% correction last month? Image: Real Investment Advice
Oil and Gas – Commodity Price Forecasts
Oil and Gas – Commodity Price Forecasts BofA expects Brent crude oil prices to reach $100/bbl in September 2022. Image: BofA Global Research
ISM New Orders Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator)
ISM New Orders Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (24-month change) tends lead ISM new orders by 18 months. Image: Trahan Macro Research
Copper YoY Change vs. ISM New Orders YoY Change
Copper YoY Change vs. ISM New Orders YoY Change ISM new orders trends point to a decline in copper prices. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Commodity Index vs. Russell 1000 Value Index/Russell Growth Index
Commodity Index vs. Russell 1000 Value Index/Russell Growth Index Value should outperform Growth as commodity prices are rising rapidly. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Dollar Smile: Dollar Appreciation and Depreciation
U.S. Dollar Smile: Dollar Appreciation and Depreciation A global synchronized slowdown tends to coincide with a stronger U.S. dollar. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Equity Returns During Previous 10 Tightening Cycles
Equity Returns During Previous 10 Tightening Cycles Will the U.S. stock market keep investors smiling? Equity returns tend to be positive during tightening cycles. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Index Monthly Performance in October
S&P 500 Index Monthly Performance in October In October, U.S. stocks tend to perform better in odd years than in even years, as odd years avoid elections and midterms. Image: LPL Research