International vs. Domestic Exposure Export-oriented U.S. stocks surged after the tariff pause announcement, reflecting growing investor optimism over easing trade tensions—though potential tariff policy changes remain key factors to watch. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Aggregate Earnings Beat A 5% earnings beat reflects the typical surprises seen in past quarters and suggests that actual reported earnings will modestly exceed consensus estimates, consistent with the historical pattern of positive earnings surprises. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Evolution of Earnings Consensus After an initial wave of downward revisions, Q2 2025 consensus earnings estimates have stabilized and remained relatively flat over the past six weeks, with no significant cuts reported recently. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Annual Price Returns The S&P 500’s performance in 2025 so far aligns with median historical gains seen during non-recessionary periods. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, driven by moderate earnings growth and supportive monetary policy. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with fewer than two sectors doing so. Image: Hi Mount Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Despite being larger than average, the recent -4% consensus EPS cut is not unprecedented and mirrors past adjustments during periods of heightened uncertainty such as tariff announcements or broader economic concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate is estimated to reduce economic growth by 0.05 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
Combined AAII & II Sentiment So far, the combined readings from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) indicate a bullish outlook, reflecting optimism and confidence among market participants. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth AI remains the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with EPS projected to increase over the next three years, driven primarily by the Magnificent 7 and the broader technology sector. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 Dividend Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields S&P 500 dividend yields are near historic lows, close to levels seen during the 2000 tech bubble, due to high valuations and companies favoring stock buybacks over dividends, challenging income-focused investors relying on dividends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Manufacturing PMI Leading indicators and supportive fiscal policies suggest potential upside risks to global manufacturing PMI in the near term. Image: Deutsche Bank