Category: Blog

China Credit and Fiscal Impulse and Commodities (Leading Indicator) China credit and fiscal impulse tends to lead commodity prices by 9 months. Image: BCA Research

ISM Manufacturing New Orders and U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield ISM Manufacturing New Orders would imply much higher bond yields. Image: Credit Suisse Research

Valuation – U.S. 2-Year Real Rate and S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E The low levels of U.S. 2-year real rates help to explain the U.S. stock market valuation. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate and U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment The U.S. unemployment rate recovery is following a path unlike any recession since World War II. Image: BofA Global Research

Global Equities and Composite of Largest Real Asset Funds Is it time to invest in real assets, as inflation is likely to pick up in the coming quarters? Image: Richardson Wealth

Financial Markets – Stock-to-Bond Ratio and S&P 500 Composite Valuation Index Financial markets are pricing in a major economic boom. Image: Alpine Macro

Inflation – Commodities and Energy Stocks vs. U.S. CPI Commodities and energy stocks tend to track U.S. inflation. Image: J.P. Morgan

Estimated S&P 500 2022 Earnings Impact Based on 25% Tax Rate Have markets priced in Biden’s tax hikes? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Returns Current S&P 500 valuation suggests anemic returns over the next 10 years. Image: Financial Times

Seasonality – Average Daily Path for S&P 500 since 1928 and Volatility Can investors expect a summer rally for U.S. equities? Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Output Gap (% of Potential GDP) Will the Fed take action to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating? Image: BofA Global Research