U.S. Consumer Spending – Comparison of Spending Between March 2021 and February 2020 Travel spending remains low, while goods spending across sectors are well above pre-pandemic levels. Image: BofA Global Research
FY2 P/E Premium of Highest vs. Lowest Valuation S&P 500 Firms The dispersion of stock multiples has narrowed, but is still wide relative to history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Economic growth tends to peak about a year after the recession ends. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield and Tapering Period Could investors see a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
% of Zombie Firms Among OECD Companies The share of zombie firms in OECD countries is increasing, as a result of governments’ response to the coronavirus crisis. Image: BofA Global Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Ratio to 12-Month Moving Average Historically, the S&P 500 tends to pull back as economic growth peaks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Interest Rates – Rate Hikes vs. Rate Cuts and Global PMI Manufacturing Global manufacturing PMI levels are screaming for policy tightening. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Small Cap Stocks – S&P 500 and U.S. Nominal YoY GDP Growth Historically, small-caps tend to outperform large-caps during periods of accelerated GDP growth. Image: BofA ETF Research
Incremental Nominal GDP from each $1 of Additional Debt vs. U.S. Non-Financial Debt % of GDP Rising U.S. debt with falling nominal GDP per $1 of incremental debt suggests insolvency by 2040. Image: Stifel
Inflation – CPI Index Since 1976 Are inflation fears overblown? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Performance and Total Public Infrastructure Spending Historically, increases in public infrastructure spending have been countercyclical to the performance of the S&P 500. Image: Morgan Stanley Research