Bubbles and Bitcoin – Trough to Peak Price Moves (%) Within 3 Years of the Highs for Selected Assets Through History Bitcoin is around half of the tulip bubble in 1637. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Performance When a New President is in Office After the presidential inauguration in the U.S., market weakness is expected in February. Image: LPL Research
Nasdaq Composite/Russell 2000 Ratio Should investors expect the start of a long reversal? Image: The Daily Shot
Core PCE Inflation and 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate Are inflation expectations too high? Image: Alpine Macro
Valuation – 10-Year Government Bond Yield (U.S. and Italy, Advanced by 3-Months) and World Equities 12-Month Forward PE (Leading Indicator) The low levels of government bond yields help to explain the world’s stock market valuation. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Dollar and Presidential Inaugurations After U.S. presidential inaugurations, the U.S. dollar tends to rise on average. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Financial Stocks vs. Financial Bonds and 5-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Financial stock outperformance tends to track 5-year rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
MSCI World Recoveries out of Bear Markets since 1970 After the shortest, and one of the sharpest bear markets in history, the MSCI World recovery is comparable to post-Global Financial Crisis. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
World Trade Volume Proxy World trade has rebounded faster than after the financial crisis of 2008, and is now pre-Covid-19 levels. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Dollar Index and Five-Year U.S. Treasury Breakeven Yield U.S. dollar weakness over the last year has almost perfectly tracked inflation expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Trade Deficit Tariffs did not reduce the US’s trade deficit with China. Image: Financial Times