U.S. Treasury Yields Since 2003 Including U.S. Cycles and Key Trends Chart suggesting that the current move in U.S. Treasuries coincide with the recovery phase of the U.S. economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Volatility of VIX Index The VIX volatility could suggest a shift in the business cycle or a structural shift. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Barometer of Coronavirus/Vaccine vs. Reopening Portfolio / Lockdown Portfolio Are higher Treasury yields coming on the approval of a coronavirus vaccine? Image: BofA Global Investment Stratey
Forward Three-Month S&P 500 Performance Following U.S. Presidential Election The S&P 500 tends to do much better if the President is re-elected. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Elections – Implied Probabilities for the Five Scenarios for Congress The odds of a Democratic sweep remain relatively high. Image: BofA
U.S. Fiscal Deficit as a Percent of GDP and Fiscal Thrust Is too much stimulus better than too little? Image: BCA Research
AA Returns Next 4 Years under S&P 500 and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Assumptions Investors should expect much lower returns over the next 4 years, unless the S&P 500 can rally to 5,800. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield and Asset Allocation In a low yield environment, does a 40% bond allocation still make sense? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China Real GDP vs. U.S. Real GDP Chart suggesting that China real GDP will overtake U.S. real GDP after 2028. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
GWIM Macro Sentiment Barometer The GWIM macro sentiment barometer has turned negative. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Dollar/Renminbi Exchange Rate and 10-Year Government Bond Yield, China Minus U.S. China’s yield advantage supports the appreciation of the renminbi. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management