Category: Blog

China Real GDP and China Leading Economic Index China appears to be on track for a V-shaped economic recovery. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Retail Investors and Small Options Trades Does the boom in options trading by retail investors suggest a market meltdown? Image: Financial Times

Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E and Equity Risk Premium Despite the rise in the forward 12-month P/E ratio, the equity risk premium is in line with its long-term average. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Elections – The U.S. Dollar Could Predict the Next President Historically, when the U.S. dollar has been weak, the incumbent party has tended to win. Image: LPL Research

Asset Bubbles and Tight Money Should the Fed raise rates to prick the tech bubble? Image: Alpine Macro

S&P 500 and Long-Term Resistance According to Morgan Stanley the correction isn’t over, as stocks get too extended. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

S&P 500 Returns – Obama vs. Trump Two charts comparing Obama’s vs. Trump’s stock market returns. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Market-Implied One-Day Move After U.S. Election Day The current expected move after Election Day is 2.8%, down from 3.2% in August. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

60/40 Portfolio Annual Return Is a 60/40 portfolio no longer good enough, as valuations are high? Image: Financial Times

Gold and Emerging Markets The gold rally suggests that emerging markets could make a comeback. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

2020 Returns by Market and Factors Despite the recent pullback, the Nasdaq is up nearly 19% YTD. Image: J.P. Morgan