Category: Blog

Real GDP – China vs. U.S. Chart suggesting that China real GDP will overtake U.S. real GDP by 2031. Image: Deutsche Bank

Forecasts for Cumulative Total Oil Stock Builds by Region The Goldman Sachs forecast remains unchanged for Brent at $65/bbl by 3Q 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed’s Balance Sheet Growth The growth of the Fed’s balance sheet has a good correlation with the S&P 500 since 2009. How will the U.S. stock market do the rest of the year? Image: Financial Times

Performance of Rule of Ten Stocks vs. Equal-Weighted S&P 500 The equal-weighted basket of “Rule of Ten” stocks has returned 24% YTD, compared with -4% for the equal-weighted S&P 500 and 39% for the equal-weighted FAAMG. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Stock Buybacks by Companies in the S&P 500 Index Bye-bye buybacks! S&P 500 buybacks fell to $88.7 billion in the second quarter, the lowest level since 2012. Image: CNBC

S&P 500 Bear Markets It was the fastest bear market and the fastest recovery in history. Image: The Wall Street Journal

FAAMG Stocks vs. S&P 500 FAAMG stocks have rocketed this year: 40% YTD vs. 5% for the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Elections – Median S&P 500 12-Month Return Based on Control of U.S. Government As the chart suggests, a divided government is best for the U.S. stock market. Image: Goldman Sachs

OECD Forecasts – Annual Change in GDP The coronavirus pandemic has plunged the global economy into the worst recession since World War II, but the OECD expects a rapid rebound next year. Image: Financial Times

S&P 500 Returns After 100 Days > 50-Day Moving Average When the S&P 500 is 100-days above its 50-day moving average, as it is today, it tends to be bullish over the next 12 months. Image: LPL Research

Free Cash Flow Margin for S&P 500 and Tech Sector The free cash flow margin for the tech sector has risen from less than 5% in the aftermath of the Internet bubble to more than 23% today. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management