Category: Blog

Gold’s Premium/(Discount) to U.S. 10-Year Real Yields Is the gold premium to real yields excessive today? Image: J.P. Morgan

Tech + Mega-cap Growth Stocks vs. Cyclicals ex Mega-cap Growth and Tech Performance across sectors has been closely correlated with the increase in the number of Robinhood users. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Valuation – S&P 500 Market Capitalization to GDP vs. S&P 500 Market Capitalization to M2 This chart puts market valuations into perspective, as the massive collapse in the velocity of money has led the Fed to print money. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Gold Price vs. TIPS 10-Year Yield Falling gold prices could warn a bottom of U.S. real yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

IT Spending and Capital Spending Indices Both IT Spending and Capital Spending Indices are sinking deeper into contraction territory. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Stocks – Small Caps / Large Caps Since late March, the bull market has followed the typical recession playbook, with the Russell 2000 outperforming the S&P 500. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. E-commerce – Percent Penetration of Adjusted Retail Chart suggesting that the coronavirus pandemic has pulled forward about three years of e-commerce adoption in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

S&P 500 vs. ISM PMI and S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 is simply following the rebound in both PMIs and earnings revisions breadth. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Corporate Bonds – Number of Fallen Angels in U.S. with 2020 Projection While fallen angels get Fed’s helping hand, their numbers in 2020 are expected to reach the same levels as in 2001 and 2009. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Dollar Most Oversold in 40 Years Morgan Stanley has exited its short position on the U.S. dollar index, but remains bearish in the medium term. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Real GDP Relative to Pre-Coronavirus Level Goldman Sachs is optimistic and has raised its 2021 estimate of U.S. real GDP growth to 6.2%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research