Category: Blog

U.S. Real M2 Growth and Inflation The United States is exposed to the risk of higher inflation, as the fiscal and monetary policies are the most expansionary. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Federal Fiscal Deficit This year, the U.S. federal fiscal deficit will be the highest since 1943, thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

10-Year Treasury Yield – Current vs. 2009 Will U.S. 10-year Treasury yields turn higher, as in 2009? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Bloomberg Dollar Index vs. U.S. Industrials ETF A rebound in activity could suggest a further depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Election – Nasdaq vs. Probability of Democratic Presidential Win in 2020 Has the market already priced in a democratic victory in November? Image: Variant Perception Research

Market Capitalization of the Largest 10 Companies as a % of the Index Market Capitalization This charts highlights the high concentration of market capitalization in the largest 10 companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5-Year TIPS Yield (U.S. Real Rates) vs. Gold Generally, when the U.S. 5-year TIPS yield goes down, gold tends to up. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Housing – MBA Purchase Applications Index Demand for housing has formed a V-shape in recent months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Equity Positioning and S&P 500 1-Month Forward Returns Equity positioning at -1.2 standard deviations suggests positive S&P 500 1-month forward returns on average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Credit Impulse as % of GDP vs. U.S. Private Domestic Demand Growth Credit growth in the U.S. has historically been a good indicator of underlying GDP growth. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Equity Sentiment Index Since 1997 The U.S. stock market sentiment is holding zero. Image: Nomura