Category: Blog

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment U.S. new weekly jobless claims fall below 2 million, but remain high. Image: Oxford Economics

Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Real Yield Generally, when U.S. real yields go up, gold goes down. Source: Scotiabank Economics

Current Rally of S&P 500 vs. Greatest Bear Market Rallies of All-Time This chart puts into perspective the current rally of S&P 500 vs. greatest bear market rallies of all-time. The potential trajectory could suggest the S&P 500 at 3300-3600. Image: BofA

Year to Date Fund Flows Many investors placed their money in US money market funds and high yield ETFs. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Futures Market Liquidity Liquidity in U.S. equity collapsed in early 2018 and remains at low levels. Lack of liquidity tends to lead to violent market moves. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Return and U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund minus Fed Holdings Historically, U.S. equities tend to deliver positive returns when fixed income assets contract. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Next Twelve Months P/E: Mega-Cap Growth Stocks vs. S&P 500 ex Mega-Cap Growth The outperformance of mega-cap growth stocks is similar with forward multiples. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 and Largest 50-Day Gains Ever (Greater than 20%) This was the greatest 50-day rally ever for the S&P 500. Historically, past big rallies saw the S&P 500 higher 6- and 12-months later. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 and % of Stocks Above their 200-Day Moving Average More than 90% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, but just 47% are above their 200-day moving average today. This chart suggests there’s room for improvement. Image: Scotiabank GBM Portfolio Strategy

Ratio of Mega-Cap Growth Stocks to the Rest of S&P 500 The rise in price of mega-cap growth stocks suggests that the earnings acceleration appears fully priced in. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation