Coronavirus Baseline Hit to the Level of U.S. Real GDP In years-on-years terms, Goldman Sachs expects -12.6% in Q2, -7.3% in Q3, -5.4% in Q4, and -6.5% for the whole year of 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GWIM Flows to Cash 4WMA BofA private clients have raised record amounts of cash amid uncertainty in the global economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Stocks – U.S. Relative to Developed Markets Excluding U.S. Chart suggesting that the structural outperformance of U.S. stocks is vulnerable to an industrial recovery. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Corporate Bankruptcies A scary chart? Corporate bankruptcies could begin to rise, if the US economy doesn’t rebound soon. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Sector Performance Since the March 23 Low Since the March 23 low, the best-performing sector has been energy, not tech. Image: Charles Schwab
Historical U.S. Unemployment Rate and Forecast Nomura forecasts an unemployment rate of 6% in the United States by the end of 2021. Image: Nomura
Consolidated Equity Positioning and S&P 500 vs. Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows Equity positioning continues to creep higher, but flows remain very defensive, as equities have seen outflows for the last three weeks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Technology Relative to the S&P 500 This chart suggests that technology is positioned to test its tech bubble highs from 2000. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Market Capitalization Weight of Info Tech, Communication Services, and Health Care Info tech, communication services, and health care sectors now account for 52% of the S&P 500 market capitalization. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Aggregate EPS Growth U.S. earnings are outperforming the rest of the world in Q1:2020, because the U.S. was the slowest to lock down its economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – P/E Ratio Spread Between Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 1000 Value The P/E valuation spread for Growth vs. Value at 12.88 is nowhere near the 46.47 level seen at the 2000 peak and suggests that Growth should continue to beat value. Image: BofA Global Research