Category: Blog

U.S. Real Personal Consumption Expenditure This chart suggests that U.S. consumer spending activity is expected to decline by 13% in simple terms. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. High Yield High yield credit spreads are currently moving in the right direction. Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 Dividend Futures Curve vs. 2019 Dividends The dividend futures market may be too negative, as it was the case in 2008. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Estimated Contraction in Global Oil Demand by Product Global oil demand is expected to see its first quarterly contraction in over a decade, due to the coronavirus pandemic. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Number of U.S. Corporate Insiders Buying Stock by Month Insiders are confident in an economic recovery and bought the dip in March. Image: Financial Times

Equity Returns Over the Past Decade Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management is advising its wealthy clients to get back into equities and favor U.S. stocks (for informational purpose only, not a recommendation). Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 – Equity Risk Premium This chart suggests that the S&P 500 looks attractive relative to bonds. Image: Truist

S&P 500 and Earnings Revisions In recent history, the S&P 500 has bottomed when the second derivative of earnings revisions have bottomed. Image: UBS

S&P 500 Selloffs and Recession Duration This chart shows the correlation between the duration of recessions and the severity of S&P 500 selloffs (R² = 0.69). Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Real Total Return and Federal Reserve Balance Sheet As this chart illustrates, the Fed balance sheet could grow to $10 trillion, equivalent to 49% of U.S. GDP. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Trend GDP – 2007-2008 GFC vs. 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic This chart puts into perspective the hypothetical hit to U.S. trend GDP in coming years vs. the global financial crisis. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute