Category: Blog

U.S. Unemployment Rate – FRB St Louis Estimate According to St Louis Fed, the US employment rate could eclipse the Great Depression high. Image: ANZ Research

S&P 500 Average Daily Percentage Move: 1928-2020 The volatility has been unusual over the last five weeks, as the S&P 500’s average absolute daily percentage change has been +/-4.8%. Image: Bespoke Investment Group

S&P 500 Dividends per Share Including Estimates Implied by Futures Market This chart suggests that dividends will take nine years to recover from the downturn caused by coronavirus. Image: Financial Times

S&P 500 Total Return, 24 Months After Bear Markets This chart puts into perspective the S&P 500 Total Return, 24 months after bear markets. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee

Fiscal Policy – Discretionary Fiscal Easing in Response to Coronavirus Crisis This chart puts into perspective the U.S. fiscal stimulus relative to other countries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflation-Adjusted Investment in U.S. Stock Market This chart puts into perspective the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return adjusted for CPI inflation (real CAGR = 6.7%). Image: Hondo Tomasz

S&P 500 Earnings Estimate Progression The market doesn’t believe that the long term earnings power has changed and expects a V-shaped earnings recovery. Image: Fidelity Investments

Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Averages The percentage of NYSE stocks above 200-day MAs is below 10% and as oversold as it was in 2008-2009, 1987 and 1974. Image: BofA Global Research

Market Sentiment Indicators Most market sentiment indicators are still at low levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. and Euro Area GDP Loss and Deficit to GDP The peak-to-trough decline in U.S. and EA GDP is expected to be more than twice as large as during the global financial crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

U.S. Fiscal Stimulus and Deficit This chart suggests that the fiscal stimulus will amount to 18% of GDP in 2020 and 11% next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research