Category: Blog

Global Quarterly Real GDP Growth Morgan Stanley forecasts global quarterly real GDP growth at -5.2% in Q2 2020. Image: Morgan Stanley Reasearch

Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks Goldman Sachs expects a sharp decline in buybacks in 2020 and 2021, suggesting less support for stock prices and slower EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Typical Peak to Trough Decline in S&P 500 Net Margins The peak to trough decline in S&P 500 net margins is 168 bp on average during past recessions. Goldman Sachs expects a contraction in net margin by 200 bp in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Contributions to the Increase in the Unemployment Rate by Industry-Occupation Pair Goldman Sachs expects a nearly 12% increase in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS This chart shows the very high correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1871 (R² = 0.97) Image: Fidelity Investments

Record Money Market Fund Inflows Money market funds get record inflow, as investors flood into the safety of cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Bear Market – S&P 500 Lows Compared to Initial Jobless Claims vs. Unemployment Rate The S&P 500 tends to bottom several weeks before the peak in jobless claims. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Coronavirus – Estimated Date of Beginning to Ease Restrictions Based on Various Factors This chart suggests the estimated start date for the easing of restrictions. Image: Deutsche Bank

Buybacks and Cumulative U.S. Equity Demand by Source Lower equity valuations and higher volatility could reduce buybacks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Trajectory Bank of America expects U.S. GDP to grow in the fourth quarter of 2020, but believes in a slow recovery. Image: BofA Global Research

IPO – Initial Public Offerings by Month This chart shows the sharp slowdown in IPOs, as markets tumble. Image: Financial Times