Category: Blog

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is still high compared to previous bear market bottoms. Image: Tomasz Hońdo

U.S. Real GDP vs. Stock-to-Bond Ratio and Recession This chart shows the correlation between US real GDP and the stock-to-bond ratio, and suggests a recession in the United States. Image: Alpine Macro

Emerging Market Currencies Crash Emerging market currencies have been pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic and the oil crisis. Image: Financial Times

Brent Prices Forecast (Oil) Chart suggesting brent prices forced lower in 2020, and then move above $60/bbl next year. Image: BCA Research

U.S. GDP – Largest Annual Economic Contractions in the U.S. Since 1900 Deutsche Bank predicts U.S. GDP to shrink -4.2% in 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank

Behavior of Stockholders in the U.S. due to the Coronavirus As the chart shows, most Americans leave investments alone. Image: Statista

S&P 500 Earnings and Dividend Growth (S&P 500 EPS and DPS) This chart suggests estimates for earnings and dividend growth this year, highlighting the financial crisis and the Great Depression. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 – Anatomy of a Decline Is this a new bull market? Not yet, although the S&P500 has gained 20% from the low of 2192. Image: Fidelity Investments

A Long-Term History of Debt & Deficits The U.S. federal deficit is skyrocketing and unusually large. Image: Fidelity Investments

Market Sentiment Index The market sentiment index is at a bearish extreme, but the stock market can still decline further. Image: Alpine Macro

Volatility – 3-month VIX vs. VIX A sign of risk aversion, as the 3-month VIX relative to the VIX did not move above 1.0 and did not confirm last week’s S&P 500 rally. Image: BofA Global Research