Category: Blog

U.S. States Restrictions during the Coronavirus Outbreak Twenty-three states have closed non-essential businesses and have issued stay-at-home orders. Image: CNBC

U.S. Dollar Index vs. Reserves (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that reserves tend to lead the U.S. dollar index by three months. Lower U.S. dollar ahead? Image: Economic Perspectives

Bear Market Rally – S&P 500 “Bounced” in 2008 To put the current bear market rally in perspective, this chart shows that the S&P 500 “bounced” six times by 9% to 19% in 2008. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 and Bear Market Bottom Historically, bear markets tend to retest the bottom either once or twice. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Expected Fed Funds Rate Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of 1.18%. Click the Image to Enlarge

Dow Jones Daily Returns and 6 Sigma Events As the chart shows, an event of 6 standard deviations above or below the mean, is extremely rare. Image: Macrobond Financial

U.S. High-Yield vs. Investment-Grade and MSCI ACWI ex-US (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the ratio of high-yield to investment-grade bond performance is a leading indicator for stocks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Index Return Excluding Best 10 Days Per Decade Since 1930, if an investor missed the S&P 500′s 10 best days per decade, the S&P 500 returns would be only 91%. Image: CNBC

Chinese Exports to EU and U.S. The impact on Chinese exports to the U.S. could be much worse than 2008. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Percentile of Sentiment Indicators since 2009 Most market sentiment indicators are reaching low levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Bear Market “Head Fake” Rallies Since 1937, eleven bear markets experienced a “head fake” rally, when the real economic pain began in the United States. Image: CNBC