Bear Market – S&P 500 Lows Compared to Initial Jobless Claims vs. Unemployment Rate The S&P 500 tends to bottom several weeks before the peak in jobless claims. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Coronavirus – Estimated Date of Beginning to Ease Restrictions Based on Various Factors This chart suggests the estimated start date for the easing of restrictions. Image: Deutsche Bank
Buybacks and Cumulative U.S. Equity Demand by Source Lower equity valuations and higher volatility could reduce buybacks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Trajectory Bank of America expects U.S. GDP to grow in the fourth quarter of 2020, but believes in a slow recovery. Image: BofA Global Research
IPO – Initial Public Offerings by Month This chart shows the sharp slowdown in IPOs, as markets tumble. Image: Financial Times
High Yield Spreads – Implied Default Ratio vs. Moody’s Forecast High-yield spreads suggest a severe recession similar to the global financial crisis. Default ratio at 16.1% (12m). Image: Swedbank Research
Cumulative Decline in U.S. Real GDP during Previous Recessions Bank of America sees a -10.4% cumulative decline in U.S. real GDP this year. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Bear Market The percentage of stocks hitting 52-week lows and the 3-month median daily correlation, could suggest a low. Image: Truist
Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS during 11 Recessions Since 1947 Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States (base case scenario). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Top 15 Worst First Quarters for the Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its worst first quarter ever. Historically, the median annual loss was 3.5%. Image: CNBC
Bear Market – Post-Waterfall Decline Environment in Dow Jones Industrial Average After waterfalls, retests are common. The Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks low 69% of time, by median of 2.4% and within a median of two months. Image: Ned Davis Research