Category: Blog

U.S. Recession Probabilities Based on the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, based on the yield curves, has risen significantly. Image: Deutsche Bank

Coronavirus Case Severity Over 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. This could explain why it is spreading so rapidly. Image: Statista

U.S. Equities During Past 11 Recessions The S&P 500 has declined by 15% from its peak. The average decline over the past 11 recessions is 26%. U.S. equity markets price in 15/26 = 57% chance of an average recession. Image: J.P. Morgan

High Volatility Episodes and S&P 500 Outside of Recessions During high volatility episodes, the S&P 500 has taken four months to recover outside of recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Share of Net Wealth Generated by U.S. Stocks This chart shows that only a minority of stocks create value over long periods of time. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 and Secular Bull Market Corrections Chart suggesting that the 100-week MA and the 200-week MA are key secular market supports. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Firms with High China Sales Exposure vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that U.S. stocks with high revenue exposure to China have suffered greater losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of a U.S. Recession as Currently Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 implies a 57% chance of recession, while 5-year U.S. Treasuries imply a 86% chance of recession. Image: J.P. Morgan

Momentum Signal Across Asset Classes Momentum signals across all asset classes have flipped to extreme risk-off. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Gold and U.S. Treasuries Chart suggesting that gold and U.S. Treasuries remain the safe haven of choice. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Coronavirus Fatality Rate by Age This chart shows the breakdowns of coronavirus fatality rate by age. Image: LPL Research