What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…
Oil Prices Forecast for 2020 and 2021 Chart suggesting $42.6 per barrel for 2020 and $35.9 per barrel for 2021. Image: Oxford Economics
S&P 500 Current Sell-off vs. October Stock Market Crashes of 1929, 1987, and 2008 Chart suggesting that the current sell-off is consistent with the historic crashes of 1929, 1987, and 2008. Image: Longview Economics
Cumulative Confirmed Coronavirus Cases The second derivative is key for markets, while Italy’s coronavirus cases rising fast. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Decline in S&P 500 Exceeded 19% and Recessions When the decline in the S&P 500 exceeded 19% in the past, four times the additional decline was deep and associated with a recession. Image: The Leuthold Group
S&P 500 Return Gains and Recent U.S. Recessions This chart shows the S&P 500 return gains after most recent U.S. recessions. Image: Statista
Confidence – S&P 500 and NFIB Headline This chart suggests that confidence is going to crash. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price and Retail Automotive Gasoline U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to fall, as OPEC+ failed to agree production cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Energy and Exploration & Production as Proportion of High Yield Is a market carnage coming? Energy accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. high-yield market, with a share of about 14%. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Zombie Companies U.S. zombie companies have significantly underperformed the S&P 500. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Important Differences Between Different Type of Bear Markets Goldman Sachs suggests that the current bear market looks like an event-driven bear market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research