Sector Performance in the 9 Months Prior to Past U.S. Presidential Elections This chart shows the sector median excess return vs. the S&P 500 during 9 months before 11 presidential elections since 1976. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Wage Growth and U.S. Productivity (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that wage growth tends to lead U.S. productivity by 21 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Average S&P 500 1-Year Performance Based on Valuation Starting Point The S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 18x currently. As valuations rise, expected returns fall. Image: Richardson Wealth
Forecast: Path of the S&P 500 in 2020 Goldman Sachs sees limited upside for the S&P 500 from current levels and set a price target of 3400 by the end of 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs
Global Equities: Value vs. Growth Price to Book Ratio Chart suggesting that value is extremely cheap vs. growth across regions, but the trend is still intact for the time being. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Biggest 5 and 10 Stocks Relative Performance to S&P 500 The biggest 5 and 10 stocks have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the past three years. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. Retail Vulnerability High Retail job cuts due to bankruptcies are way up and hit highest level since 2005. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 and Elections Years February has averaged zero during an US election year since 1950, but has the best month the past 10 years. Image: LPL Research
Valuation – S&P 500 vs. MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emergind Markets This chart highlights the valuation gap between U.S. and international equities. Image: LPL Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Minus U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment and Recessions The unemployment rate minus the natural rate of unemployment has been negative for 34 months, and tends to bottom before a recession.
U.S. Consumer Credit The current downtrend in US consumer credit impulse could suggest a scenario of slowing growth this year. Image: Macrobond Financial