S&P 500 and ISM Manufacturing Index
S&P 500 and ISM Manufacturing Index In recent history, when the ISM Manufacturing Index rose above 50, the S&P500 rose by about 2% on average over the next 3 months Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Category: Blog
Global Oil Consumption as a % of GDP and Global Recessions
Global Oil Consumption as a % of GDP and Global Recessions Chart suggesting that Brent crude prices need to exceed US$117 to push the global economy into recession. Image: Financial Times
U.S. ISM Recession Probability
U.S. ISM Recession Probability Chart showing that historically, a level greater than 44.5% has indicated a recession. Current U.S. ISM levels suggest a recession probability of 10%. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Coronavirus and Three Forecasts
Coronavirus and Three Forecasts Optimistic case: peak of ~42k infections by the 2nd week of March Base case: peak of ~85k infections at the end of March Pessimistic case: peak of ~128k infections by the 1st week of April Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Big Companies and U.S. Job Market
U.S. Big Companies and U.S. Job Market Big firms dominate the U.S. economy and the U.S. job market. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Value vs. Growth and U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield
Value vs. Growth and U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield The outperformance of U.S. growth stocks relative to U.S. value stocks suggests lower bond yields ahead. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Brexit: What the European Union Loses?
Brexit: What the European Union Loses? The chart puts into perspective what the European Union stands to lose when the Brexit transition is complete. Image: Statista
Treasury Holdings: Who Are the Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities?
Treasury Holdings: Who Are the Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities? Currently, the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are Japan and China. Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. President’s Approval Rating vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate at End of First Term
U.S. President’s Approval Rating vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate at End of First Term President Trump’s approval rating is historically low compared to the unemployment rate. Image: J.P. Morgan
Annual Purchases of Gold by Central Banks
Annual Purchases of Gold by Central Banks The first three quarters of 2019 were the largest central banks purchase of gold in recent history, due to geopolitical tensions. Image: J.P. Morgan