S&P 500 Index Total Return – Do the First 5 Days of a New Year Matter? Since 1950, when the first five days of a new year have been up more than 2%, the full year return has been positive 16 of 17 times. Image: LPL Research
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio S&P 500 to 3,550? “Bull markets don’t die of old age” but the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains at high level. Image: Truist
Valuation – Largest Company in Terms of Market Value in the S&P 500 At current level, Apple is the largest publicly traded U.S. company. Image: Financial Times
BofA Global Luxury Demand Indicator The global luxury demand indicator is now negative and falls to its lowest level since Q2 2016. Image: BofA Global Research
Leverage in the U.S.: Households and Corporations This chart shows the divergence between U.S. non-financial corporations leverage and households leverage. U.S. corporation debt reached a record level of $10.12tn. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Performance vs. S&P 500 by Uses of Cash S&P 500 companies using cash for mergers and acquisitions have outperformed since December 2017. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FAANG Stocks Dominate Returns since 2010 This chart shows the importance of FAANG stocks to the post-crisis market recovery. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 Forward P/E Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts a forward P/E of 18.6 by year-end, and a downside scenario at 16, depending on tariffs and the US election result. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation Metric Is the U.S. equity market overvalued? The S&P 500’s median valuation metric is in the 89th percentile. That’s not cheap by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Jobless Claims and Recession Currently, U.S. jobless claims look good. This chart suggests that jobless claims tend to rise above the red line, prior to a recession.
U.S. Real Interest Rates and Recessions Currently, U.S. real interest rates are negative. In recent history, real interest rates were at least above 1.8% (orange line) before a recession.