Category: Blog

Market Reactions to 20 Middle East Crisis Events Stocks and oil tend to to perform well following Middle East crisis events. Image: CNBC

S&P 500 Operating EPS vs. Normalized EPS The gap between operating and normalized EPS is the widest since Q3 2007 (the prior market peak). Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Global PMIs Global PMIs and earnings growth across regions could suggest a strong risk-on year. Image: Fidelity Investments

China’s Monetary Policy The Chinese banks’ reserve requirement ratio will be cut by 50 bps on January 6, to 12.5%. Image: Bianco Research

BofA Sell Side Indicator The BofA’s Sell Side Indicator suggests no euphoria and equity returns of 12% over the next 12 months, putting the S&P 500 at 3,629 by year-end. Image: BofA Global Research US Equity & Quant Strategy

S&P 500 Return in First Five Days vs. the Full Year Since 1950, when the stock market finished the first five days higher, the S&P 500 has been positive 82% of the time at year-end, with an average gain of 13.6%. Image: CNBC

S&P 500 Return vs. Economic Data and Central Bank Balance Sheets Charts suggesting that economic data drives S&P 500 returns, not central bank balance sheets. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Market Response to U.S. Missile Strikes In the past 30 years, the impact of U.S. missile strikes has been quite small on the market. Image: Charles Schwab

Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Total Return and Maximum Pullback In 2019, the S&P 500’s pullback (from peak to trough) of 6.8% was one of the smallest pullbacks in recent history. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

S&P 500 Net Debt vs. Share Buybacks U.S. companies are ramping up share buybacks. Funding is coming in part from a rise in debt. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research