Category: Blog

U.S. Job Openings and Unemployment The U.S. labor market is very tight. There are still more open jobs than unemployed workers. Image: FactSet

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and “Not QE” Welcome to “Not-QE”. The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding at fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: US Global Investors

Volatility and Equity Bull Markets Since 1928, when equities are still rising, volatility tends to increase in the last stage of bull markets. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Distribution of U.S. Inflation Rate Is inflation really dead? It may not be dead forever. This great chart shows that the distribution of the U.S. inflation rate has been fairly good since 1871. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve While the divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record, the steepening yield curve suggests an earnings rebound. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. GDP Growth and Business Cycles Despite the current U.S. economic expansion is the longest ever, GDP growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC

S&P 500 Stocks with Dividend Yields Above 30-Year Treasury Yield Yields on U.S. equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Legg Mason

U.S. Household Debt American debt hits a record high of $13.95 trillion and represents about 73% of GDP vs. about 83% a decade ago. Image: Reuters

G4 Central Bank QE and Emerging Markets Equities This chart suggests that G4 central bank stimulus would support emerging markets equities in 2020 (R = 0.94 since 2016). Image: BofA Global Research

No One Loses Money in China? That’s pretty curious. Very few Chinese companies appear to have a negative return on equity (ROE) compared to NYSE listed firms. Image: Wind Information

DHL Global Trade Barometer The DHL Global Trade Barometer is a leading indicator for the future development of global trade, suggesting a protracted but mild decline of world trade. You may also like “Recession Indicators.” Image: Deutsche Post DHL Group