Category: Blog

S&P 500 Realized Volatility by Year 2020 volatility estimate of 14.7 is above the median, but below the mean (data from January 1929 to December 2019). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Equity Flows A lot of investors are chasing returns, driving stocks higher. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Earnings and Net Buybacks Buybacks have been trending lower over the last two quarters. Deutsche Bank expects buybacks to slow to $625bn in 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

PCE Inflation vs. Output Gap (Leading Indicator) Positive output gap suggests higher core inflation next year. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

Adoption Rates of Cryptocurrencies and Internet Deutsche Bank predicts cryptocurrencies could eventually replace fiat money over the next decade. Image: Deutsche Bank Forecasts

S&P 500 Operating Earnings and NIPA Corporate Profits Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 margins to rise slightly in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fiscal Impulses in Japan and the Eurozone Japan and the eurozone are expected to benefit from significant fiscal stimulus next year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

China GDP Growth Over the Next Five Years China real GDP growth is expected to continue to decline in the coming years. Image: Danske Research

Trade War – S&P 500 Peaks and U.S. Trade Policy What is the likelihood of a trade deal between the U.S. and China? Past market peaks have been followed by major trade escalations. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

QE in 2020 and Central Banks (the Fed, ECB and BoJ) Central banks’ QE should support financial markets next year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Starting Valuation Predicts Future Returns Based on the Shiller CAPE ratio, the chart suggests a 10-year compound annual growth rate of only 2% to 4% for the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments