U.S. Business Cycle – Cumulative Real GDP Growth of U.S. Postwar Expansions and Forecast The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. Chart showing the UBS forecast through year-end 2020. Image: UBS
S&P 500 2020 Target Models BofAML is bullish. The official S&P 500 2020 estimate is 3,300. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
U.S. Market Valuation Chart suggesting that the U.S. stock market seems expensive in a number of ways. Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Domiciled Funds: Active vs. Passive Record passive inflows suggest passive equity funds will surpass active in the coming years. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment – NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Lower mortgage rates help the housing market and boost home builder sentiment. Image: Leonard Kiefer
Stock of Broad Money Around the World This chart shows how much money is in circulation around the world. China has the most money in circulation, followed by the U.S.. Image: howmuch.net
U.S. Zombie Companies and Fed Ended QE Since the Fed ended QE, U.S. zombie companies have underperformered the market. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. vs. China Trade Balance and Treasury Holdings China’s Treasuries holdings drop, while the U.S.-China trade balance shrinks very slightly amid the trade war. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Global Supply of Safe Assets by Country – Shortage of Government Bonds The global shortage of government bonds is going to get worse and could keep yields low or negative. Image: Financial Times
Rotation from U.S. Stocks to Rest-of-World The rotation from U.S. stocks to cheaper global stocks continues, reaching $123 billion recently. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy
U.S. and China – Effect of the Trade War on Real GDP Growth Assuming no further escalation, the trade war drag on real GDP growth is expected to peak in Q4 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research