Category: Blog

U.S. Real GDP and Productivity The U.S. economy is slowing down and productivity falls by most since 2015. Is the drop in productivity temporary? Image: Oxford Economics

Net Proportion of Global PMI with Positive 12-Month Change There are signs of a bottom in global PMIs: 12 out of 41 countries see a positive 12-month change. This is double the number from July 2019. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

60/40 Portfolio – Bull and Bear Markets This is the longest bull market for balanced equity/bond portfolios in over a century, without a 10% total return drawdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment

Recessions Length in Quarters Historically, recessions tend to be two or three quarters. Image: Oxford Economics

S&P 500 Valuation and Subsequent Annualized 10-Year Returns Chart suggesting annualized returns of approximately 5% over the next 10 years. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Stock-to-Bond Ratio Leads U.S. Real GDP Chart suggesting that the U.S. stock-to-bond ratio leads U.S. real GDP by 6 months, which could indicate higher GDP growth. Image: Alpine Macro

The Biggest IPOs of All Time Saudi Aramco could be the world’s biggest IPO. Image: Statista

S&P 500 Index and UBS Weighted Global Growth Surprise Index The divergence between the S&P 500 Index and the global growth surprise index could explain why this bull market is so hated. Image: Swedbank Research

S&P 500 Price Return 12-Month Period Following Midterm Election Since 1946, the S&P 500 has never declined in the 12 months following a midterm election. Image: Strategas

U.S. Employment Rate 55+ The U.S. employment rate of older workers is increasing in a long-term trend. Image: Ernie Tedeschi

Probability of VIX Spiking Above 20 and Growth Level The probability of VIX spiking above 20 in the next 3 months is 60% at this level of growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research