U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than the overall S&P 500 average.
History of Oil Prices Since 1861 This chart is a good illustration of oil price volatility over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Repo Market (Outstanding Repos) and Reserve Demand Curve The Fed will expand its balance sheet again, by purchasing Treasury bills at least until mid-2020, which should rebuild the level of reserves in the system to $1.7 trillion. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
China Imports Lead World GDP This chart shows that China imports is a key factor of global growth, and clearly lead world GDP. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Inflows and EUR/USD European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) inflows usually suggest a weaker U.S. dollar. Image: Morgan Stanley
Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Around first rate cut, when growth stocks and large-cap stocks outperform, it does not suggest a recession is coming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fiscal Policy Contribution to U.S. Real GDP Growth The impact of fiscal policy contribution to U.S. real GDP growth is expected to fade in 2020. Image: Morgan Stanley
Job Openings and Average Weekly Hours The number of job openings fell in August, mirroring the decline in average weekly hours, and confirming that the U.S. labor market is cooling. Image: TD Bank Financial Group
U.S. Economic Data Chart showing that U.S. economic data revisions have turned negative. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
High Yield Credit Spread and Move Index Does higher rate credit volatility imply a widening of high-yield spreads? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Value vs. Growth Stocks Since 1927, U.S. growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 30% over a 2-year period, on five occasions. Each time, it was before a recession or a war. Is it different this time? Image: BofA Merrill Lynch