U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…
Risk-Adjusted Returns Across the Treasury Strips Curve The distribution of strong returns across the Treasury curve has become very tight. Historically, this marks the beginning of the end. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Cumulative Fund Flows: Global Equities and Global Government & Corporate Bonds $339 billion in inflows to bond funds globally, and $208 billion in outflows from global equity funds in 2019, as investors fear a global recession is on the horizon. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Proportion of Unprofitable IPOs The proportion of unprofitable IPOs has reached 70%, the highest level since the tech bubble 20 years ago. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Dollar and Growth in the Rest of the World vs. U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the U.S. dollar could weaken in a scenario of a global economy recovery. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
New Home Sales vs. Recessions Typically, a recession occurs when the annual change in New Home Sales declines by about 20%. This chart suggests that a recession from these levels would be surprising. Image: Calculated Risk
Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.” Image: Macro…
Dividends and Buybacks vs. Free Cash Flow Dividends and buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels again, thanks to low interest rates. But companies cannot spend more than they earn forever. Image: Capital Group
The Highest-Paying U.S. Companies by Median Salary Most highest-paying American companies are in the tech sector. Image: howmuch.net
Federal Reserve Money Supply M2 Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Federal Reserve money supply M2 leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Hedge Fund Long Positioning Speculative long positions in the S&P 500 are near levels that have marked major bottoms in the past. Image: Macro Ops