Global Manufacturing PMI Increased After 15 Months of Consecutive Declines Global manufacturing PMI continues to improve after 15 months of consecutive declines. Is the worst over for global PMI? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
World Counting on the U.S. Consumer The U.S. consumer accounts for 17% of world GDP. That’s more than China’s GDP. Image: Truist
U.S. Auto Loan Delinquency Auto loan delinquencies keep rising in recent years and are a good measure of financial strain. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
U.S. and Eurozone Unemployment Rates This chart shows the gap between the unemployment rates of the two economies, while unemployment falls to historic lows. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Consumer Confidence Relative to U.S. Business Confidence This chart shows one of the highest divergence between consumer confidence and business confidence, more than two standard deviations. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
10-Year Rolling Average Sales Growth by Region The importance of remembering the past: this chart shows the steep decline in sales growth over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. vs. China – Number of Listed Companies, IPO There are fewer firms listed on U.S. exchanges than 20 years ago. And the U.S. has also fewer listed public companies than China. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending This chart shows that U.S. core capital spending is near a 20-year high. Are fears that U.S. companies may be curtailing spending plans overblown? The absence of dividend cuts also suggests that U.S. companies are confident in their future earnings potential. Image: The Leuthold Group
10Y-3M Yield Curve Spread Leads U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests that the 10Y-3M yield spread leads U.S. real GDP growth by one year. So, what about real GDP growth in 2020?
U.S. Unemployment Change and Real Interest Rate at Time of Yield Curve Inversion Looking at real interest rates can provide some insight about the severity of a recession before it starts. This chart suggests that unemployment could increase significantly during the next recession.
U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Corporate profits have mostly been flat over the past five years. Is a new bubble being formed? Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond