Category: Blog

Fed Balance Sheet Projection According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: UBS

Demographics – IMF World Gross National Savings as a Percent of GDP Aging populations may well boost savings. This chart is a very good illustration. Image: Bianco Research

Russell 2000 Trailing EV/EBITDA Multiples vs. Private Equity EBITDA Multiples This chart shows that private equity multiples are currently higher than public equity multiples. Image: Strategas

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Fed Insurance Cut vs. Fed Recession Cut In recent history, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and the Fed cut rates, a recession occurred. Image: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. House Prices Lead Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. house prices lead real personal consumption expenditure by 6 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Lohman Econometrics

S&P 500 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets Index This chart shows the strong performance of the S&P 500 against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Image: Financial Times

U.S. 10-Year Yields U.S. 10-year yields are currently 140 bps above developed peers and highest since 1984. Image: Arbor Research & Trading

Number of Fed Rate Hikes/Cuts Expected Over Next 12 Months Fed funds futures imply two further rate cuts over the next 12 months. Image: Credit Suisse Research

NFIB Expected Credit Conditions NFIB Expected Credit Conditions are improving and suggest that the U.S. expansion still has room to run. Source: Longview Economics

Percentage of Central Banks Easing Globally Currently, most of the world’s central banks are easing: 55% is the highest percentage since the global financial crisis. Image: UBS