Category: Blog

Fears of a German Recession Are Rising A recession in Germany could mean economic damage across the region. Image: The Economist

Zombie Companies – U.S. Zombie Stocks by Sectors This chart shows the rise of zombie stocks in the health care and technology sectors after 2000. Image: FactorResearch

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Leads Global GDP This chart suggests that the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) leads Global GDP by 6 months. Image: Ken Fisher

Volatility – Percentage of Days the S&P 500 Index Rose or Fell by More than 1% This chart shows that volatility has risen last year and year-to-date, and is expected to continue through 2020. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Share Buybacks by Month Excluding 2008, August and November are generally the busiest months for buyback executions in the past decade. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Image: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…

Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER

Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Returns Under Various Presidents since the Inception of the Dow Jones For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This spreadsheet shows the Dow Jones performance across different presidencies since 1896. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC