Category: Blog

S&P 500 and the Shortest Maturity U.S. Treasury Yielded Highest Houston, we have a problem! Image: OddStats

U.S. GDP and S&P 500: Change in the Three Years After a Recession Began U.S. GDP has declined by about 1.4% over two quarters since World War II, and in the worst recessions, the S&P 500 has been cut in half. Image: The Washington Post

How Many Recessions People Lived Through As An Adult? This chart puts recessions into perspective. Currently, about 40 million American adults haven’t experienced a single recession during their working lives. Image: The Washington Post

Time From First 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion And S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. Last three 10Y-2Y curve inversions, further gains average 33%. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Global Semiconductor Sales Lead U.S. GDP Growth This interesting chart suggests that global semiconductor sales lead U.S. GDP growth by six months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. Household Debt and World Trade This chart shows the pretty good correlation between U.S. household debt and world trade. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Real Annualized Equity Returns in Local Currency and U.S. Dollar Over a long period of time, this chart suggests that there is a small difference between local currency equity returns and U.S. dollar hedged returns. Image: Credit Suisse

U.S. Recession Probability and the U.S. Dollar The chart shows the correlation between the NY Fed probability of U.S. recession and the U.S. dollar. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Ken Fisher on the Yield Curve In this short video, Ken Fisher explains what the yield curve is and its impact on the market. You may also like other videos by Ken Fisher. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld3D5B8_wAU&list=PL1F15F9796653B69B&index=23&t=0s

Liquidity Premium: Investment Grade vs. High Yield Bonds The chart shows that the premium provided by illiquid IG and HY bonds has been drifting wider. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Number of Small-Cap M&A Deals At 10-Year High The number of small-cap deals is expected to continue to grow, because CEOs are under pressure to increase profits Image: Legg Mason