Category: Blog

Global Bond Fund Flows Over the past 3 months, investors have injected $160bn into bond funds, fearing a global recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Allocation to Cash and Recession Probability This chart shows the correlation between allocation to cash and the NY Fed 12-month ahead recession probability indicator. Image: Barclays Research

S&P 500 Median Stock Net Leverage Net leverage of the median S&P 500 companies reached new highs, above 1.8. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Overtime Hours Lead U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Great chart suggesting that overtime hours lead U.S. nonfarm payrolls by 3 months (R = 0.90). Image: Paolo Cardena

Contribution of Dividends to Total Returns Interesting chart showing that dividends are clearly a key component of total return. Image: Topdown Charts

Crypto Market Capitalization Percentages Bitcoin dominance is clearly on the rise and is now 69% of all cryptocurrency market capitalization. Image: CoinMarketCap

CS Global Risk Appetite Index The Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index falls, but is not at panic level. Image: Credit Suisse

Japan Corporate Profits Leads MSCI World EPS This chart suggests that Japan corporate profits leads MSCI World EPS by 7 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Overtime Hours and Recessions This chart shows that overtime hours are a leading indicator for where U.S. nonfarm payrolls might be headed, and generally turn negative prior to a recession.

U.S. Productivity Growth and Hourly Compensation When wages lag behind productivity growth, workers do not receive their fair share of the wealth created. Image: Economic Policy Institute

S&P 500 1-Month Realised Volatility History This chart shows that the last 90 years have been split equally between high, low and normal volatility regimes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research