Category: Blog

S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Active Equity Managers Still Underperform This chart shows the low percentage of active funds that outperformed and how difficult it really is to beat the market over time. You may also like “The Rise of Passive Investing.” Image: PIMCO

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond remains in negative territory. Investors do not seem to fear rising rates over the long-term. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds.

U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans The U.S. unemployment rate of Black or African Americans stands at 6.3%, while the civilian unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, near its lowest level in almost 50 years. You may also like “Homeownership Disparity Deepens.”

Longest Losing Streak for Global PMI Global PMI falls for 15 months in a row. New tariffs will certainly not help. Image: Charles Schwab

Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities This chart shows that a large pattern appears in the price of movements of commodities. Image: Visual Capitalist

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Recession Warnings The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. has rarely weakened sharply ahead of rate cuts, except in 2007. Currently, it doesn’t suggest that a recession is looming. Image: Reuters

The Length of U.S. Economic Expansions and Recessions This chart puts into perspective the current business cycle, which could last longer. Image: Legg Mason

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Image: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop

How Does A First Rate Cut Affect the Stock Market? Since 1970, the first rate cut has been bullish for the S&P 500 for the next 12 months, with recession and no recession. Image: Fidelity Management and Research