U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Produces Highest Sharpe Ratio in Decades Since 1990, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note has produced the largest sharpe ratio. Is it the beginning of the end like past events? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model The NY Fed recession probability model could suggest an increase in the percentage of U.S. states with rising unemployment over the next 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Equity Volatility vs. Equity Allocation As equity volatility rises (inverted on the chart), equity allocations come down. You may alos like “The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years.” Picture Source: Deutsche Bank
Cumulative Mutual Fund + ETF Flows by Bull Market Cycle: Bonds vs. Equities Flows Is this the most hated bull market in history? Well, investors continue buying bonds. Image: ICI Mutual & ETF Flow
The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
GDP Weighted Global Central Bank Policy Rate vs. Global PMI This chart suggests that global policy rates are too tight compared to global PMI in contraction mode. Image: Pervalle Global
Largest 1-Day Drops for the S&P 500 per Year Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell by almost 3%. The average largest 1-day drop per year is -4.04% since 1928. Image: LPL Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Earnings Expectations Despite the earnings squeeze, the Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the stock market. Image: Bianco Research
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the good correlation between ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and U.S. GDP. Image: Piper Jaffray
America’s Student Debt by State Student loan debt has more than tripled over the last decade to $1.5 trillion. You may also like “Distribution of Student Loan Borrowers by Balance.” Image: howmuch.net
Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World Index The chart shows a pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI World Index. Stocks and PMI tend to move together. Image: Charles Schwab