Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions This chart shows that the economic impact of most U.S. recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by +24% vs. S&P 500 +117%, and the average recession reduced GDP by less than 2% vs. S&P 500 +3%. The average expansion is 67 months and the average recession is…
Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections Americans tend to elect Democrats when unemployment is high, and Republicans when unemployment is low. Image: Ken Fisher
S&P 500 Performance Before and After Recessions since 1970 U.S. equities peaked about six months before the recession began. Image: Russell Investments
Correlation Between S&P 500 and U.S. Treasuries This chart shows the correlation between stocks and bonds, which could affect a balanced 60/40 portfolio. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Global Inflation Interesting chart showing that inflation is largely a global phenomenon. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Index vs. Global M1 Liquidity Another good correlation between the S&P 500 Index and global M1 liquidity, while the Fed plans to stop quantitative tightening. The money supply M1 is the amount of effective money in the economy. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Fiscal Stimulus as a Percent of GDP The chart shows the impact of the Trump fiscal stimulus on U.S. economic growth until 2021. You may also like “Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP?“ Image: ClearBridge Investments
S&P 500 PE Level vs. Average 12-month Return The chart shows how market valuation affects future equity returns since 1930. You may also like “Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession?“ Image: Richardson Wealth
Global PMI vs. Global GDP The chart shows the strong correlation between global PMI and global GDP. Global PMI slides to lowest since 2016 and global GDP may have difficulty growing at a rate above 2% in the near future. Image: IHS Markit
Recession Length and Real Interest Rate at Time of Yield Curve Inversion This chart shows the recession length and real interest rate at time of yield curve Inversion. Looking at real interest rates can provide some insight about the severity of a recession before it starts.
Forward Performance Following First Fed Funds Rate Cuts After first Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 performance is quite attractive on average when no recession. You may also like “Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut.” Image: Strategas