Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and modest impacts on overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
Announced Share Repurchases (U.S. Buybacks) The surge in S&P 500 buybacks this year, backed by solid earnings, liquidity, and targeted capital allocation, marks a pivotal year for shareholder value and market gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity and Quantitative Strategy
Gold Annual Returns Up 40% this year, gold is enjoying its strongest rally since 1979’s 133% surge. But so far, the rise has stirred far less hysteria than in earlier eras, leaving room for further gains in the near to medium term. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Around First Cut Following Easing Cycle Pauses of Six Months or More Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after holding steady for at least six months, U.S. stocks often post strong gains over the following year—especially when the cuts reflect economic normalization rather than recession. Image: Ned Davis Research
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
Buying U.S. Equity Securities In 2Q 2025, foreign investors boosted their holdings of U.S. equities, while U.S. households and hedge funds cut back amid market volatility and policy uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Market Cap / S&P 500 Equal Weight Index The current performance gap—where the market-cap-weighted index outperforms the equal-weight index—does not necessarily signal an imminent bear market, but it does warrant some caution for investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is below the fed funds rate, signals that monetary policy is restrictive. It also implies the Fed is about 80 basis points behind the curve in cutting rates. Image: Real Investment Advice
Annual S&P 500 Net Buyback Payout Ratio Over the past decade, the buyback payout ratio in the S&P 500 has remained high and relatively steady, with buybacks serving as a primary way of delivering value to shareholders. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research