Initial Fed Rate Cuts and Resulting Forward Market Returns This spreadsheet also shows that the S&P 500 has performed well on average, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Eurozone Inflation and Brent Oil Prices This interesting chart shows the direct effect of brent oil prices (YoY % change) on euro area inflation. Image: Jeroen Blokland
China 10-Year Bond Yield Leads US 10-Year Bond Yield This interesting chart shows that China 10-year bond yield tends to lead the U.S. 10-year bond yield by two months. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Probability of US Recession is Rising Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, said that “Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.” Image: U.S. Global Investors
U.S. Recessions since 1800 This interesting chart shows that U.S. recessions are becoming rarer over time. The last U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. Image: Fidelity Investments
Global Equity – Bond Flows According to Bernstein, the S&P 500 not far from its all-time high, could set a new record. Image: Berstein Research
U.S. Debt Markets An interesting chart showing the breakdown of U.S. debt markets. Image: Bianco Research
Who Owns the Equity Market? Most of the equity market is owned by households and mutual funds. But ETFs and foreigners continue to gain share. Image: Bianco Research
U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate vs. Russell 2000 Index Could this interesting correlation persist over time? Image: Hayek and Keynes
Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland