One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…
Why Are Oil and Gas Companies Making Massive Investments for the Next 10 Years? Oil and gas companies are making massive investments for good reasons. The energy demand will flatten after 2030 and the oil and gas industry will go through a transition over the next decades. Below is the oil and gas forecast to 2050.…
Why Albert Einstein Said “Compound Interest Is the Eighth Wonder of the World” If you invest $3000 per year from 10 years before you turn 30, you would earn more money when you turn 70 than if you invest $3000 per year from 30 until 70. That’s the power of compounding, because the amount earned…
The World’s Best and Worst Places to Do Business Ranking 190 economies on measures of regulatory quality and efficiency, the United States came in at 8th place. Image: Visual Capitalist
Saying No to the Unimportant Things… “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.” -Warren Buffett Saying no to the unimportant things, but saying yes to the things that really matter. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Who Has the Most To Lose in US-China Trade War? The tariffs are no threat and China has more to lose economically in a trade war. Those numbers are estimates but in reality wrong ones and far too high, according to Ken Fisher. Image: Oxford Economics
How to Get Inflation? Mainly, inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Nominal GDP = M x V = P x T M = quantity of money V = velocity of circulation of money P = level of prices T =…
How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…
S&P 500 Largest Pullbacks in the First Five Months of Each Year Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has performed the first five months of the year without a decline of at least a 2.5% pullback only once in 1995. Is a pullback for U.S. stocks approaching? Image: J.P. Morgan See S&P 500 Intra-Year…
Commercial and Industrial Loans Continue to Accelerate in the U.S. That’s a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. banks wouldn’t be lending if they were concerned about the economic situation. Past three recessions saw bank loans negative year over year.
Ideal Portfolio – Stocks as Percent of Retirement Portfolio by Age For the ideal portfolio, GMO recommends the following stocks as percent of retirement portfolio by age. Source: GMO LLC