One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…
How the Composition of Wealth Changes from the Middle Class to The Ultra Rich? From the middle class to the ultra rich, the composition of household wealth changes dramatically. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket.” Image: Visual Capitalist
What Does M1 Money Supply Growth Tell Us About the Next Recession? M1 is the money supply that includes types of money commonly used for payment, basically currency outside banks and checking account balances. This is not the perfect recession indicator, but in recent history, it turns negative at least one year before a recession.
Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…
Europe’s Stocks Are Really Unloved Europe’s benchmark has lagged other major ones in recent years. But on the positive side: the valuation is low, Europe will not disintegrate, the rotation from bonds to equities has not yet begun, and there is a fairly good growth in 2019. Image: Bloomberg
Which Country Has the Highest Density of Robot Workers? South Korea had 710 installed industrial robots per 10,000 employees in the manufacturing industry in 2017. When robots replace manual labor, the productivity and the quality of products increase dramatically. Robots increase labor productivity levels and won’t take all the jobs. Image: Statista
What Is the Recession Probability In the Next 12 Months? The New York Fed’s recession probability model suggests that there is a 27% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Why Are U.S. Banks Healthier Than Ever? U.S. banks are much stronger than ever. They have more capital and should withstand the next recession. See Fed’s annual stress test (Dodd-Frank Act Stress Tests): “The capital levels of the firms after the hypothetical severe global recession are higher than the actual capital levels of large banks…
How Average Americans Spend their Money? The average American household – $53,708 in spending. That’s 73% of total income. Image: Visual Capitalist
6-Month Returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018 The next 6 months have been the worst on average. Here is the 6-Month returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this…
Oil Is Really a Curse for Venezuela The irony is that the proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the largest in the world! Picture Source: Bloomberg