Category: Blog

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day If the U.S. trade deficit is a national emergency, then the small-cap and Nasdaq bear markets need life support! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎

Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession The rise in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is seen as a negative sign, highlighting economic risks that could affect market sentiment and change investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan

The 15 Worst Q1 Returns for the S&P 500 and What Happened Next A weak Q1 for the S&P 500 often sets the tone for lackluster performance in the remaining quarters, with data showing a median return of just 3.0% for the final three quarters. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Bear Markets S&P 500 bear markets tied to recessions don’t end before the recession starts. Those without a recession are rare and usually short. Image: TS Lombard

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bull market secured… until it isn’t. In finance, the wise investor always expects the unexpected! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately +125bps, with a positive hit rate of 70%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long as there are no concrete signs of tariff reductions or de-escalation in trade tensions. Image: Deutche Bank

S&P 500 10% Drop in Two Days A 10% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is unusual, but history shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries, giving investors reason for optimism. Image: Carson Investment Research

Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The “Liberation Day” effect has set equity markets free—free to plummet, that is! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎