Google Searches for “Global Financial Crisis” and “Great Recession” While fears of a 2025 tariff-driven recession evoke memories of 2008, some investors see today’s prevailing pessimism as a contrarian bullish signal for stocks. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment has often marked market bottoms. Image: CNBC
Sentiment – GS Business Optimism Tracker U.S. business optimism has seen a significant and widespread decline in early 2025, as multiple indicators and surveys report sharp drops in sentiment among CEOs, CFOs, and small business owners. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hard Data vs. Soft Data The notable divergence between soft and hard economic data highlights the challenge of interpreting the true state of the economy. While sentiment surveys suggest caution, hard data has yet to confirm a significant slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 jumping 4.59% last week, bulls are celebrating like they just hit the jackpot, while bears are trying to find their lost optimism! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Performance After >70% Advancers Three Days in a Row on the NYSE Historically, three consecutive days with over 70% NYSE advancers signal strong bullish momentum. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered positive 12-month returns 96% of the time, averaging an 18.9% gain. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 EPS Estimate After Tariff Impact Deutsche Bank slashed its 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $240 (from $282) due to tariffs’ outsized burden on U.S. companies. The S&P 500 index could rally to 6,150 if trade tensions meaningfully abate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Forward Earnings and U.S. Dollar Index The weakening U.S. dollar is raising significant concerns for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly through its interplay with tariffs and global economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Zweig Breadth Thrust Bulls have reason to smile as the Zweig Breadth Thrust has perfectly predicted S&P 500 gains in all 19 post-WWII instances, averaging 23.4% returns within a year and never producing losses over 6- or 12-month horizons. Image: Carson Investment Research
Magnificent Seven Stocks vs. S&P 500 Index Since DeepSeek’s emergence in January 2025, the Magnificent Seven stocks have underperformed compared to the S&P 500, driven by AI disruption fears and concerns over capital expenditures. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day While bulls are toasting the S&P 500 gains this week, bears are busy Googling “emergency exits from a market rally.” Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 and NYSE >70% Advancers Six Times Over a Two Weeks Period Six trading days with NYSE advancers exceeding 70% within a two-week period historically signal a robust bullish phase—distinct from bear-market rallies—with an average 12-month S&P 500 gain of 22.6% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research