Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession

The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 21%, a level slightly above the historical average and consistent with moderate risk.

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession