Starting Valuation Predicts Future Returns

Starting Valuation Predicts Future Returns Based on the Shiller CAPE ratio, the chart suggests a 10-year compound annual growth rate of only 2% to 4% for the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments

MSCI World Index Valuation at Cycle Peaks and Troughs

MSCI World Index Valuation at Cycle Peaks and Troughs On average, the MSCI World Index currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that has marked cyclical peaks in the stock market over the past 50 years. Image: Charles Schwab

S&P 500 Valuation

S&P 500 Valuation This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in a trading range rather than in a bearish or bullish market trend, for more than 20 months. Image: Fidelity Investments

Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP

Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP This ratio is useful in determining whether the U.S. stock market is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical average. The current reading is pretty high at 149.15%. You may also like the “Stock Market Valuation” and “S&P 500 Index – Earnings & Valuation.” Image: Bianco Research

S&P 500 Index – Earnings & Valuation

S&P 500 Index – Earnings & Valuation The S&P 500 valuation is high relative to history and the earnings growth estimate has fallen to +3.7% for 2019. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Image: Fidelity Investments

Is The U.S. Stock Market Overvalued?

Is The U.S. Stock Market Overvalued? S&P 500 Valuation: the chart shows that the U.S. stock market is not cheap. Based on the forward P/E ratio, the S&P 500 is not extremely overvalued either. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Image: Bianco Research

S&P 500 Valuations Above Historical Average

S&P 500 Valuation Above Historical Average The S&P 500 is overvalued on 17 of 20 valuation metrics. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Image: Bank of America

98% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.96 since 1970

97% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.94 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 97% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.94. It means that 94 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…

S&P 500 Valuation – Forward P/E Ratio – May 10, 2019

S&P 500 Valuation – Forward P/E Ratio – May 10, 2019 S&P 500 Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 16.5 and equal to the 5-year average, above the 10-Year average (14.7).Based on the forward P/E ratio, the US stock market is not too expensive. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Image: FactSet Research Systems Inc.